No full aviation recovery until at least 2023, IATA predicts

The International Air Transport Association has released new analysis showing that the damage to air travel from Covid-19 extends into the medium-term, with long-haul and international travel being the most severely impacted.

Quarantine measures on arrival would further damage confidence in air travel.

A risk-based layered approach of globally harmonised biosecurity measures is critical for the restart, IATA said.

IATA laid out two possible scenarios for the restart.

Under the best-case process, domestic markets would begin to open moving into quarter three, with a much slower phased opening of international markets.

This would limit the air travel recovery, despite most forecasts pointing toward a strong economic rebound late this year and during 2021.

In 2021 IATA said it expected global passenger demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometres) to be 24 per cent below 2019 levels and 32 per cent lower than the October 2019 Air Passenger forecast for 2021.

The body said it did not expect 2019 levels to be exceeded until 2023.

As international markets open and economies recover, there will be further growth in air travel from the 2020 low point.

But even by 2025 we would expect global revenue passenger kilometres to be ten per cent lower than the previous forecast.